$2 MILLION BELMONT STAKES (G1)
3YO | 2000M | DIRT | SARATOGA RACE COURSE (NEW YORK, USA)
HORSE (Morning Line Odds, International Market Odds)
VITRUVIAN MAN (30/1, 50/1)
Third in the G1 Santa Anita Derby, Vitruvian Man is a long-winded son of G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso out of a Bernardini mare, thus bred to love every step of the 10 furlongs, but must up his game considerably on the class front. Antonio Fresu gets the mount, which is always a plus, and he drew the rail, which may force him to show more speed than usual. While the track has been playing kind to speed, the question is whether he will be fast enough show any. If so, he could be a player for a piece, here. A horse who is likely to improve and equally as likely to be far better than he appears on paper. That said, he is not quite good enough yet to be considered a major player. Best of luck to three-time Godolphin Mile-winning trainer Doug O’Neill.
POWERSHIFT (12/1, 16/1)
Lightly raced Todd Pletcher pupil Powershift looks to be one of the likely pace-setters in a race devoid of early tempo. Favoured Renegade’s breeze partner, he reportedly out-worked the more-fancied yard-mate in their final preparation, prompting owner Repole Stable, part-owner of Renegade, to go double-fisted into the ‘Test of the Champion.’ By Constitution, the $500,000 yearling purchase was a good second to fellow Belmont contender Emerging Market in Tampa Bay maiden company back in February before a disappointing sixth in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby in March. He returned to easily annex a maiden race over 1 1/16 miles (1700m) on Kentucky Oaks day, May 2. Out of G1-placed sprinter Free Flying Soul, he will look to stretch his pedigree as much as his seasoning on Saturday.
CHIEF WALLABEE (3/1, 10/3)
Another lightly raced son of Constitution, Chief Wallabee was a good fourth with a traffic-bothered trip in the G1 Kentucky Derby, a race in which Belmont rivals Golden Tempo and Renegade finished first and second. Said race was his first with blinkers and he keeps them on for this race, which could be a key component to strategy/early focus. He has been getting plenty of attention and is many-a-pundit’s top selection in this race and one can imagine why. He has Bill Mott in his corner, who won this race last year with Sovereignty and is the very best at developing a horse along a positive trajectory. The question will be tactics with this lad, as he has the pace to go forward if jockey Junior Alvarado decides to do so. In the end, he’s a serious player who has run fast enough to win this race and is bred to handle the distance.
RENEGADE (2/1f, 7/4f)
Rightful favourite here after neck second in the G1 Kentucky Derby, the son of Into Mischief has already proven he can get the distance and has a wicked turn-of-foot when asked. One could be of two minds with him—he either has a traffic-free trip and bolts up or his previous exertions took a bit too much of the starch out of him and mark him vulnerable. Was smashed at the start of the race and had trouble finding the seams, but came running well enough to catch the affection of most trip handicappers. A serious player and the horse to beat, as he will surely come running. It’s just a matter of how hard.
OTTINHO (20/1, 25/1)
Half-brother to the great Gun Runner does not have remotely the talent of his Horse of the Year sibling, but does know how to stay and will, like Vitruvian Man, hope that it becomes a test of stamina. A maiden winner in December, he was third in the Listed Withers and then a distant second to runaway winner Further Ado in the G1 Blue Grass in April—basically in another zipcode at the finish to the subsequently beaten Kentucky Derby favourite (11 lengths). Dylan Davis takes the mount on the first of three Chad Brown pupils and will have his work cut out for him.
GROWTH EQUITY (12/1, 12/1)
The second from the Chad Brown trio, the son of Nyquist exits two consecutive victories, including an Aqueduct maiden and a smart victory in the local prep for the Belmont, the G3 Peter Pan. Owned by Klaravich Stables, the $425,000 purchase needs to improve on his speed figures, but is going the right direction for top-class connections. An outsider, but not by too much and perfectly capable of picking up a piece.
COMMANDMENT (6/1, 11/2)
A surprisingly ordinary performance from this powerhouse of an animal five weeks ago in the Kentucky Derby was a perplexing turn of events. Winner of four consecutive races going into the Run for the Roses, he was expected by many to show his customary will to win, but never seemed as alive as his prep races, including wins in the G1 Florida Derby, G2 Fountain of Youth and Listed Mucho Macho Man Stakes. This is a horse who usually bulls his way through traffic like a snowplow, but barely picked it up, ambling along to keep seventh at the wire. John Velazquez picks up the mount, which can almost always be a good thing for the Qatari Wathnan colours and Brad Cox, who is confident he is back on track. A serious player if on song and his very best can win.
EMERGING MARKET (6/1, 7/1)
Chad Brown’s best horse on paper of the triad is this lad, a sleek chestnut son of Candy Ride who was 10th in the Kentucky Derby after losing a shoe and arguably being too close to the pace. Expecting a more tactical ride from him today as top rider Flavien Prat returns. One of two for Seth Klarman’s Klaravich Stables and appearing the better of the pair. Would not be surprised with a top-three finish, but the jury is still out as to how good this horse really is and that is the problem. Good horse with a big future, but if that future involves a Belmont win is the real question.
GOLDEN TEMPO (9/2, 6/1)
The last-to-first G1 Kentucky Derby winner hopes to emulate that form, but must do so with far less pace this time and a smaller field. Tactics will be everything, but he is surely going to be pulling up the caboose for the first half of this race under Jose Ortiz for history-making trainer Cherie DeVaux. On speed figures, he ran a similar race to his prep run, which tells you another step forward five weeks later is likely. Is that going to be good enough if horses like Commandment, Chief Wallabee and Renegade return to the much-quicker numbers they ran in their Kentucky Derby preps? That is indeed a big ask, but this horse is really easy to cheer for and if he repeats, no one in the sport will be too upset about it. Except for maybe the Preakness Stakes representatives after he swerved their classic race. All things being equal, I find him to be a smidge below the very best when at their very best.
SELECTIONS:
COMMANDMENT (7)
RENEGADE (4)
CHIEF WALLABEE (3)
