Paul Quigley
The racing at Churchill Downs gets better each day as the week progresses towards Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. Wednesday’s card in Louisville Kentucky has a couple of stakes events. The first for two year olds makes limited appeal to me. The market is likely to be dominated by two wide margin debut winners trained by Wes Ward. The other stake on the card is The Isaac Murphy Marathon. It is a rarity Stateside to have races carded over a mile and a half on dirt. The likely favourite Parchment Party has looked much improved since stepping up in distance. His barn mate Timeout looked a tad unlucky when runner up in this race last year. Add in the talented Brad Cox trainee Wynstock and a few other likely types and you have a fascinating renewal.
Thistledown Race 8
Claiming $16,000 (split conditions) –Ohio bred 3 year olds and upwards – 6 Furlongs – Dirt
There are runners in fine form, comebackers and possibly a few price chances in this line up. In the first named category is Fast and Friendly (6). He is a lightly raced four year old who is improving. A maiden win here last spring has been followed by two claiming victories since he returned at Mahoning Valley. This is a step up in class but he may have the early speed to make the lead on his own. Ironclad Alibi (9) is far more exposed but is going good right now. He comes off back to back runner up tries at Mahoning Valley. The six year old meets better today but the winner of his last race ran well when upgraded on Monday.
Two runners look interesting getting significant class relief for their comebacks. Specialized (8) has the better back form in the better races. He was competitive in higher priced claimers last summer and autumn. The six year old won for $50,000 here in July. He has been working well for his first start since November. His trainer Bob Gorham has a really good record with lay off runners. Jeffrey Radosevich can bring a runner back for too. His Gray Day (7) had mainly a diet of allowance events last year. He did win both times his trainer dropped him into claiming company. If he’s third or fourth choice in the market, he may be worth a small interest.
Corner Office (1) has showed he retains plenty of ability at Mahoning Valley. All but two of his ten career victories have come at Thistledown. That includes his last two starts here in September. The horse for course is worth considering. His barn mate Elliot the Dragon (10) seems well drawn to get a nice stalking trip. Man's Choice (5) seems to be rounding into form when third in a claimer at the start of the month.
Selection: Gray Day (7)
Churchill Downs Race 8
Starter Allowance – 3 year olds and upwards – 7 Furlongs – Dirt
This looks pretty competitive. One of the three year olds in in his line up Sharons Beach (3) will take money. He has left his juvenile form since he returned in January. A couple of big efforts in maidens at Santa Anita were followed by a second at Keeneland. His last race was in an entry level allowance event earlier this month. This is technically a drop in class although his last didn’t look a deep one for the level. The claimer Good Mojo (4) ran second in there last time seems just as good if not better. He ran a career best that day. His old trainer often points his horses to that meet. That mean his new one may have less to work with than appears. He has worked well for his new handler and he sports two fine runs at Churchill.
Norwich (1) faded late on his comeback at Oaklawn. That was first start in seven months. In addition, that was a swiftly run starter with the principals capable of fine form. Second time back is likely to see him in a better light. That and the booking of Flavien Prat are reasons for giving him strong consideration. Sweet Freedom (9) is likely to be a much bigger price. He comes off a second and a victory in high-end claimers at Turfway. The horses he’s been finishing close to suggest he can contend here. The surface switch is not an issue as he’s a two-time winner on dirt. He goes for a low percentage trainer but he’s handled this gelding just fine. The six year old may come rolling late to get a place at least.
The comebacking South Bend Tom (7) returns to the track he ran a career best at. Speedstorm (8) is a little interesting too. He defied a long lay off to break his maiden second time out at Oaklawn. He has worked well since and may have another step forward in him. Gordon's Legacy (5) is a tougher read with only two starts on the turf. His dam and most of his siblings were grass performers. The odd one did run well on dirt.
Selection: Sweet Freedom (9) each way
Tampa Bay Downs Race 9
Claiming $16,000 – Fillies and Mares – 4 year olds and upwards – 1 Mile – Turf
This is tough on a couple of levels. The likely pace scenario may be down to jockey intentions plus a couple of the better gals in here need to rebound. The two big class droppers fit in both categories. Quadra (1) was claimed off a victory last month. It was only by a neck but the runner up won well next time. Her rider set quick fractions before fading running first time for trainer Juan Arriagada. That was a deep starter. Now back at the level she won at, she is a big player.
Whether Quadra (1) has company on the front end from Birdie Rose (5), likely depends on her jockey Paco Lopez. She has been freshened up after being claimed in January. Most of her recent races have been in sprints. She has form in routes in the past. The six year olds is the class of this event and has been working really well. Now eased in grade for her return, she is very dangerous.
The recent form of Gulfstream shipper Cheekiest (8) has been darkened due to her last two runs. They were at a higher level than this. Slow paced races on Tapeta don’t play to her strengths. She has better form on turf to her name. In February, she ran third in a $35,000 claimer on the grass downstate. Her trainer Michael Tomlinson rarely has a runner at Tampa. He is one for three and jockey Samuel Marin was aboard that winner. She won’t be some kind of great price but Quadra (1) and Birdie Rose (5) should ensure she is playable odds.
Timeless Rose (6) is a consistent type hasn’t but got her head in front in over a year. She has been placed in two of her last three starts at this meet. The nine year old could make the podium again. Tiki Bar (3) snapped a losing streak at today’s claiming level in February. She came from a long way back to score. The early fractions up front were tepid next time and she failed to contend.
Promaja (4) beat a field of one time winners on the dirt earlier this month. She has from on turf but may need to take a step forward to earn more than a minor award.
Selection: Cheekiest (8)
Churchill Downs Race 9
The Isaac Murphy Marathon – A stake for 4 year olds and upwards – 1 ½ Miles – Dirt
The likely front three in the market have few knocks. Parchment Party (2) looks a worthy favourite. He has looked much improved since stepping up to long distance races. The five year old has won his last three starts on dirt. They were all stakes events. At the end of last year, his connections took a shot in The Group 1 Melbourne Cup. Almost five months later, he got back to winning ways in a stake at Oaklawn. The runner up came off a stakes romp at Laurel and he in turn finished well clear of the third. That was over four weeks ago so he may avoid the dreaded bounce.
Parchment Party (2) doesn’t have to win this race. There are plenty of alternatives. On of the more obvious is No Bien Ni Mal (1). The former South American won a productive allowance event at Saratoga on his Stateside debut. He added to that by winning a Grade 3 over today’s distance at Parx. That was in September but his trainer has a good record with lay off runners.
Digital Ops (4) is a bit of a law unto himself these days. He did Stowaway (9) in the snow at Colonial Downs last month. He ran a length second to Parchment Party (2) last summer. There is a chance Tyler Gaffalione has him on the lead on his own. He is dangerous under that scenario. Like him, Wynstock (8) can run the odd modest race. His last two victories are contending efforts. They were a wide margin allowance score and beating a couple of solid types at Aqueduct. Like a few in here, he runs as if he will handle the extra distance. His backers are likely to have to take 4/1 or even shorter to find out if he does.
Makes Sense (6) started poorly and taken out of his best running style when Wynstock (8) last time. His five length victory prior to that in New York is contending form. He seemed to ride a golden rail. Maybe Timeout (3) and Interceptor (5) are better propositions. The first named may have needed his comeback at Oaklawn. He was a head runner up in this race last year. It may pay to ignore his run behind barn mate Parchment Party (2) at Saratoga in June as that race was run in a bog. Interceptor (5) comes off a trio of fine efforts at Aqueduct. His trainer Mike Maker has no peers when it comes to winning long distance stakes.
Selection: Parchment Party (2)
Exotic Play: Reversed Exacta/Forecast (2 Bets): Parchment Party (2) and Timeout (3)
