MEYDAN FRIDAY 12 DEC – MICHAEL ADOLPHSON | @ADOLPHSONRACING
17:30 Race 1 – G2 Madjani Stakes (Purebred Arabians, 9.5f)
AA RX BURN steps up in trip to where he belongs. A Listed winner over 10 furlongs upon Al Ain’s demanding surface, this 9.5f test off his 7f prep (2nd in the G2 Bani Yas to dual G1 winner Mubeed) should hit him right on the nose. Expecting a good run and a typically heady ride by Antonio Fresu, who looks to land his second consecutive feature race during his three-meeting stay at Meydan after landing the Listed Al Garhoud Sprint last week with Musabbeh Al Mheiri (also the trainer of AA RX BURN) pupil El Nasseeb. TARIQ has ample back-class and I expect him to run well here for the formidable Jahoori/De Sousa team, especially over conditions he relishes. UNLEASHED is classy and will be winging it on the front end early, but may need the run. Meanwhile, VIZHIR, a G1 winner in Saudi Arabia making his debut for the same yard as AA RX BURN, has class in spades and should factor here.
Selections:
4 AA RX BURN
3 TARIQ
5 VIZHIR
18:05 Race 2 – 9fT Handicap (Division 1) (75-95)
This race presents some questions we have to answer. For example, is Charlie still training EMPEROR’S STAR because he believes he’s better than he’s shown? Is GREEN TRIANGLE better than his two recent thumpings in his initial two runs for the Crisfords? Is WESAM going to overcome some greenness to get Saeed bin Suroor on the scoreboard? Your guess is as good as mine. I tend to believe, as EMPEROR’S STAR was the lesser of the two in this race before it was split into two divisions, that I wouldn’t necessarily be confident tha the would win here. Of note is that the rail will be out significantly, which often allows front-running pace to carry more than it naturally would otherwise. In as much, I’m going to seek a pace-friendly sort and I cannot see past course & distance winner COSMIC DESERT, who should be fit off his season debut and get first run on this race turning for home under a jockey riding out of his skin right now, Connor Beasley. MOTADARREK is a one-paced train of a horse and a former Jean-Claude Rouget trainee now with John Hyde. They had the confidence to run him in Listed company twice in his short career after winning and kept him instead of selling him when things went awry. Expecting a forward tank-along trip and hopefully a nice value to land in the top three. EYE ON THE PRIZE is simply a good horse who has yet to get his full due and has often been unlucky. Expecting him to run in the frame here.
Selections:
10 COSMIC DESERT
5 MOTADARREK
11 EYE ON THE PRIZE
18:40 Race 3 – 6f Maiden
This race is also a little rough around the edges, but I do think we can find a couple horses in here worth upon whom to hinge our hopes. MUZAAHIM is likely better than his last and perhaps that two-week gap into the run did not help. The son of Speightstown sports a solid dirt pedigree and showed enough in his season debut, finishing third over 5f at Jebel Ali, to think he could turn up well with a four-week break and a pair of runs. The form cycle favors him and he’s a nice value. ROYALCORRESPONDENT has hinted at being a decent horse and while I think he will be better suited to turf or Jebel Ali, he has plenty of seasoning and should be dead fit going into this off three runs already this season. Was fifth in similar company and conditions in March and should be in the mix. FARAMAN is likely better than his debut four weeks ago and looks a sort to improve markedly here. The transition to actual dirt and not the all-weather-esque Jebel Ali should only help him.
Selections:
6 MUZAAHIM
1 FARAMAN
8 ROYALCORRESPONDENT
Race 4 19:15 – 2yo 7fT Maiden
DO OR DO NOT is the class off his four G2 placings and thus the heavy favorite. I fully expect him to win well, as this field is not winning any awards. BRNYTSHE was a good second to a stablemate and older horse in a trial and is by super sire Candy Ride out of a half-sister to an Italian Oaks winner. He’s not the prettiest mover, but he’s a grass horse and I liked his breeze-up at the Craven Sale—still I think he will desperately need the race. START ME UP was a good third in a decent Newmarket maiden last spring and has had one prep since, finishing second on the all-weather at Southwell. Fully expect the son of Mehmas to revel the quick ground here and give George Wood and Richard Spencer a popular winner. If this race were on dirt, STATE GLORY would be very difficult to beat. He’s a grandson of Hard Spun, so maybe he will take to the surface, but his round action speaks to the contrary. WATCH COLLECTOR should have gone in the dirt race, where he would have been a sneaky player off his strong late run on debut, but like STATE GLORY isn’t guaranteed to love these conditions. Alas, we go with the two best turf horses atop and the fittest horse to round out the top three.
Selections:
2 DO OR DO NOT
5 START ME UP
6 STATE GLORY
Race 5 19:50 – 8f Handicap (80-100)
I could be reading this all wrong, but I believe a hardy late-charging warrior like STREET MOOD taking weight from sophomores ROYAL FAVOUR and GALACTIC STAR is a gift—especially when a mile is likely not the optimal distance for either of them and he loves every step of it. Massive value, top connections and swinging for the fences with a horse finally back doing what he should be doing. ROYAL FAVOUR is a classy horse and looked well last year. Was invited but withdrawn from the UAE Derby and could have been a serious player there. He has a bit more pace and will thus have an advantage over market rival GALACTIC STAR because of that. Another to watch is HOME BREW, who is a tiny bit heartless in a battle, but is a grinding sort with ample back-class to get a piece of this. I’ve always like him, all the way back to his West/Cox days stateside.
Selections:
6 STREET MOOD
4 ROYAL FAVOUR
3 GALACTIC STAR
Race 6 20:25 – 6f Handicap (85-105)
Another value play as STRAIGHT AND LEVEL gets back to sprinting on dirt, which he’s just as good at as turf, if not better, as he’s very much a grinder on that surface. The kicker is, though, that I believe his turf races will set him really well to try to show more acceleration after stalking on the dirt. He has the pace to stalk nicely and is drawn well in six to try to hopefully get down in the pocket in a race filled with pace. Hopefully they go crazy up front. I would like to see him stalk while scraping the paint (saving ground) and then tip out to see what he’s got after the pace collapses. MA YETAL will be in that pace and I worry that it may hinder his chances, so I’m going to take a risk and drop him out of my top three—but he may be the most talented horse in this race, when all is said and done. Meanwhile, I do expect DREW’S GOLD to be up there mixing it up and ASAD ZABEEL to be within range, while needing the run. In the end, I’m going to for the best value with the best jockey.
Selections:
9 STRAIGHT AND LEVEL
2 DREW’S GOLD
1 ASAD ZABEEL
Race 7 21:00 – 6fT Handicap (75-95)
Michael Costa has a solid 1-2 punch in this handicap. What I love about his horses coming in is that they all breeze on the uphill at Jebel Ali, leading one to believe that straight Meydan six-furlong sprints will see his horses doing their best running at the end. MANSHOD leads the market, but I really do not believe this is his optimal trip. He’s a massive, leggy son of Animal Kingdom who will be far more suited to seven furlongs around the sweeping bend, using his stride to the detriment of others. On the other hand, the far more market-friendly YOTARID from the same yard tries turf for the first time after a series of excellent all-weather runs and should relish every step of it, being a half to G1 Nassau winner Al Husn. Love him on this track and hoping for a big run under Ray Dawson. COLUMNIST figures in a big way for Wathnan on his class lines, while VESPASIAN is arguably the horse to beat on paper.
Selections:
1 YOTARID
5 VESPASIAN
7 COLUMNIST
Race 8 21:35 – 8f 2yo Conditions
DEVON ISLAND dominates the market. He looks the one to beat. He was much the best last time, three weeks ago. But why is he here? There are better races for big winners like him. Is it a nod to the depth of the Appleby ranks on dirt this season? Is he simply in need of more seasoning? Or is he just not that good?... As it were, I won’t support it where it matters, while I seek more value elsewhere. PETIT was a very good winner of his trial and I suspect he may run another big one on debut, though his massive size may be unkind to him if he’s pushed out wide. BROTHERLY LOVE came running last out and I suspect he’s the horse to watch here, but absolutely must work out a trip over a distance. TAILGUNNER JOE is by surprisingly solid freshman sire and Breeders’ Cup Classic champ Knicks Go, while a half to a G1-winning turf filly stateside. I suspect he will relish the natural dirt and be a part of the pace. RASHWAN is a half to classy turf miler Hit The Road, but by dirt-laden sire Gun Runner. I think he may need more distance and this is just a jumpoff point for him. This race is all over the place, but here’s where I land: DEVON ISLAND possibly refuses again to change leads and gets caught late by a big-striding, late-running sort, PETIT, and TAILGUNNER JOE hangs around longer than expected.
Selections:
7 PETIT
2 DEVON ISLAND
3 TAILGUNNER JOE
Race 9 22:10 - 9fT Handicap (Division 2) (75-95)
When this race was one division, it looked like MOTHECOMBE would be rather difficult to beat and then… he drew into the arguably weaker split of the race. He should win this well under Billy Loughnane and I would be surprised if he didn’t. SEAN is well-handicapped here and gets back to a track he adores. Was second in a similar race in February, while rated eight pounds superior. I love the drop in rating, as it looks more like strategy than a slipping in form. POSTER PAINT should go forward here and hang around longer than expected, thanks to the rail being out markedly and him just being a hardy horse finally getting back to conditions he craves. One horse to watch who is very much being overlooked could be MARKOON. If you put a line through his first-up run for Watson here in the UAE off a 432-day break, he factors. Out of Listed-winning Oaks 8th Maqsad, he is still very much unexposed.
Selections:
7 MOTHECOMBE
3 SEAN
13 POSTER PAINT
Best: R1 AA RX BURN