5

19:45 Navan (IRE) 09 Feb 2025

William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Novice Chase

Grade 2 | Class 1 | 5YO plus

Winner €22,500 - 5 ran

2m 7f 175y

Soft to Heavy

Draw Advantage: None

Position
Dist Btn
Horse
SP
Age / Wt
OR
Jockey / Trainer
1
1/2 Fav
7 11-3 t
152

tracked leader in 2nd, improved to lead 4 out, ridden after 2 out, reduced advantage and strongly pressed inside final furlong, stayed on well close home

2
nk
13/2
8 11-8 p
 - 

held up in last, mistake 5th, slight mistake 12th, left 4th 4 out, headway into 2nd travelling well 2 out, ridden and chased winner after last, kept on close home, not reach winner

3
7/2 2Fav
8 11-3 p
147

led, bad mistake 12th, slight mistake and headed 4 out, ridden in 3rd when not fluent 3 out, 3rd when slight mistake at last, no impression on leaders run-in

4
64
300/1
8 11-3 t p
 - 

tracked leaders in 3rd, not fluent 7th, dropped to 4th when left 3rd again 4 out, soon ridden, moderate 4th after 3 out, no impression

U
10/1
8 11-3 t h
 - 

tracked leaders in 4th, took keen hold, headway into 3rd when mistake and unseated rider 4 out

Expert Analysis

Simon Rowlands's image
Simon Rowlands

Only 5 runners, one of whom had no chance and another of whom failed to complete, but it probably represents smart form from the other 3 (all from the Gordon Elliott stable) who fought out the finish. The pace was on the steady side on fairly testing going, the on-screen splits of 61.68s for the final 4f prompting a 110.9% finishing speed.

BETTER DAYS AHEAD (c151 here and previously) landed the odds with little to spare, having more to beat than the market implied. He was always close up, went on for sure 4 out and had to be ridden out as the third refused to go away and the second came at him strongly.

STELLAR STORY (c156 here, 133+ previously) ran a fine race under a penalty and has the ability to go close in the Brown Advisory for all that he still looked novicey at times, travelling comfortably held up, awkward at a couple, but knuckling down well when finally shaken up between the last 2 and almost getting there. His defeat of The Jukebox Man and Dancing City in last year’s Albert Bartlett looks better now than it did at the time if anything.

THREE CARD BRAG (c147 here, 150 previously) has plenty of experience over larger obstacles now but that did not stop him from making a howler shortly after halfway, from which he soon recovered, headed again 4 out but there with every chance until no extra on the run-in.

ARCTIC SKUA (c0 here, ? previously)

CHOSEN WITNESS (c? here, 134+ previously) was still going well when blundering/unseating 4 out when in third, too far out to say what would have happened to him, but he might have improved on his pre-race rating at least.

Future Form

Type Stats Type Stats
Summary 18 runs, 1 win (1 horse), 4 placed, 13 unplaced Next time out 5 runs, 0 wins, 1 placed, 4 unplaced
Class analysis 4 runs up in class, 0 wins, 2 placed, 2 unplaced Ratings check Highest winning OR: 149; Highest placed OR: 155
Previous winners
Year Going Ran Winner Draw Age Weight OR Form Last run Trainer (Distance) Jockey SP Time
2024 Heavy 5 American Mike 7 11 3 - 2474-14 45 days G Elliott (2 miles) Jack Kennedy 7/ 2 6:53.00
2023 Good - Yielding 9 Churchstonewarrior 8 11 3 - 432-222 45 days Jonathan Sweeney (186 miles) Aidan Coleman 9/ 4 6:20.00
2022 Heavy 4 Farouk D'Alene 7 11 3 - 141-122 23 days G Elliott (2 miles) Jack Kennedy 4/ 11 6:34.00
2021 Heavy 5 Coko Beach 6 11 5 - 9-24231 24 days G Elliott (2 miles) Jack Kennedy 5/ 4 6:46.50
2020 Heavy 6 Captain Cj 9 11 3 - 1-223F2 29 days D A McLoughlin (2 miles) Conor Maxwell 10/ 3 6:52.60
2019 Yielding 6 Chris's Dream 7 11 3 - 2119-12 21 days H De Bromhead (153 miles) Rachael Blackmore 5/ 2 6:17.10
2018 Soft - Heavy 4 Monbeg Notorious 7 11 3 - 21-2211 24 days G Elliott (2 miles) Jack Kennedy 5/ 4 6:51.30
2017 Soft - Heavy 8 Acapella Bourgeois 7 11 3 - 1-4F341 29 days M S Sandra Hughes (64 miles) R Loughran 7/ 2 6:37.40
2016 Heavy 6 Measureofmydreams 8 11 3 - 3148-01 36 days W P Mullins (83 miles) Paul Townend 12/ 1 6:51.60
2015 Yielding - Soft 6 Very Wood 6 11 3 - 31-61PP 48 days N Meade (2 miles) Bryan Cooper 13/ 2 6:32.80
2014 Heavy 5 Foxrock 6 11 8 - 31-2131 29 days T M Walsh (64 miles) Danny Mullins 4/ 6 6:48.30
2013 Heavy 4 Terminal 6 11 3 - 134-121 45 days W P Mullins (83 miles) Ruby Walsh 15/ 8 7:17.80
2012 Soft 7 Lion Na Bearnai 10 11 3 - 32-5185 77 days T Gibney (2 miles) A P Thornton 50/ 1 6:35.50
2011 Heavy 5 Quito De La Roque 7 11 8 - 141-121 29 days Colm Murphy (119 miles) Davy Russell EVENS 6:54.00
2010 Soft 10 Uimhiraceathair 8 11 3 - 521-321 24 days W P Mullins (83 miles) Ruby Walsh 4/ 6 6:37.90
2009 Heavy 8 Siegemaster 8 11 3 - 45-4133 50 days D T Hughes (64 miles) Davy Russell 11/ 8 6:55.40
2008 Soft 11 Pomme Tiepy 5 10 6 - 212111 21 days W P Mullins (83 miles) Ruby Walsh 4/ 6 6:25.30
2007 Heavy 7 Snowy Morning 7 11 5 - 121121 24 days W P Mullins (83 miles) Ruby Walsh 10/ 3 6:48.30
2006 Soft 8 Church Island 7 11 8 - 111UU2 29 days M Hourigan (127 miles) A J McNamara 7/ 2 6:38.10
2005 Soft 9 Point Barrow 7 11 10 - 2-54211 22 days P Hughes (83 miles) J Elliott 5/ 4 6:51.30