Paul Webber reckons he has a couple of lively outsiders to support Time For Rupert's bid for Cheltenham glory.

The red-hot RSA favourite Time For Rupert is by far the standout of Webber's Festival team after winning both his starts over fences this term and finishing second in last year's Ladbrokes World Hurdle.

But the Oxfordshire-based trainer said: "We like the look of Edgbriar in the Byrne Group Plate and Alasi has run very well this season, getting very close to Banjaxed Girl on several occasions. She'll go for the David Nicholson. Sarando has a couple of options over two and a half miles."

Of Time For Rupert, Webber reported: "All is good and his form is rock-solid - that's why he's the 5-2 favourite.

"He had a little bit of jumping practice with Yogi Breisner as he hasn't had much racing and we wanted him to keep learning."

I am working on the theory that the Byrne Group Plate will be an easier race to win this year because the new Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase is bound to take away a clutch of well-treated horses beneath the 140 ceiling mark.

It's doubtful for instance that last year's winner Great Endeavour, rated 135, would have lined up had there been a suitable novice alternative, while the same remark applies to 2004 victor Tikram (133).

With novices boasting a good record overall in this race - they've won four of the last 15 renewals and had a one-two 12 months ago when Sunnyhillboy chased home David Pipe's grey - it's still my favourite place to look for the likely winner and the one who stands out, from a much reduced shortlist, is CAPE TRIBULATION.

I have to hold my hands up here because in my preview of the Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase on day one, I wondered if Cheltenham was his ideal track, but that was from a three-mile perspective based on previous Festival performances in the Albert Bartlett and World Hurdle.

Having looked back through the gelding's form, I've now reached the conclusion that it was the distance, rather than the hill, that beat him. Certainly, he stayed on resolutely enough behind Zaynar over an extended 2m4f in last season's Relkeel Hurdle and the form looks solid with the now 139-rated Shalone, receiving 8lb, nine lengths back in third.

Cape Tribulation, rated 145 then but with a top mark of 155 over hurdles, looks the sort who could do some damage off 142 over fences, having shown above-average potential in novice chases, scoring easily on his debut at Hexham and travelling well for a long way when second to leading RSA contender Wayward Prince over three miles at Wetherby.

Although narrowly beaten when odds-on at Market Rasen last time, there was no disgrace in that as the winner Radium went into the race with a 7lb advantage according to official ratings. Jumping to the left on occasions, Cape Tribulation also gave the impression he would be happier back on an 'anti-clockwise' track.

Malcolm Jefferson, always a man to be respected when he brings horses to Cheltenham, also has the seven-year-old entered in the three-mile handicap but confirmed that this race was the target - although he added the proviso that the horse won't be going anywhere if he considers the ground too quick, so it's best to seek out the non-runner-no-bet guarantee.

"I'd like there to be some element of soft in the going and if we get that, I fancy him to run a big race," the Malton trainer told me this week. "He looks nicely handicapped over fences and I feel a strongly run 2m5f round there is ideal because he stays that trip well and has the tactical speed to hold a handy position."

The weights are set for a maximum 2lb rise thanks to the likely participation of Hey Big Spender, who has the raw ability to run well off 154 as he showed when finishing fourth off a pound higher mark in the Racing Post Chase.

The form of his decisive win at Warwick previously has been boosted by runner-up Fine Parchment landing the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury but I still worry about his jumping because he unseated in the Jewson last year, fell in the Hennessy and still takes the odd liberty with a fence.

Copper Bleu, winner of the Jewson 12 months ago, would be a prime candidate for this if it wasn't for his poor subsequent form. Pulled up at the Punchestown Festival on his next start, he reportedly underwent a breathing operation before finishing tailed off on his reappearance over hurdles at Ascot last month.

Doubtless the soft ground did not help him there and he presumably needed the run, but it requires a leap of faith to back him when we simply can't be sure of his current wellbeing.

Aigle D'Or has come in for recent support to suggest he is JP McManus's favoured runner, but as I've said in my Centenary preview I'm not a big fan of Nicky Henderson's horse due to his previous Festival failures.

Paul Jones's stats guide highlights the excellent record of Venetia Williams in this event and while it's hard to fancy Atouchbetweenacara on this season's form, she has a potential 'sleeper' in recent dual winner Quartz De Thaix. But he sums up the conundrum of the race following the changes to the programme because he could well take his chance in the Centenary instead.

GREAT ENDEAVOUR

• Trainer: David Pipe 
• Jockey: Danny Cook 
• Owner: David Johnson 
• Age: 6
• Weight: 10st 1lb
• Starting Price: 18/1
• Season Form Figures: 3144
• Previous Best: Won - Novices' Chase, Towcester.

Given that the last ten winners all started at double-figure odds, this has become the hardest race at the Festival to nail the winner of in recent seasons. Sunnyhillboy became the first market leader in that time to even finish in the frame when second 12 months ago so this is a race in which to chance a few long shots. Novices also came to the fore last season being responsible for the winner and runner-up.

You may want to give the Irish a swerve given that just one Irish-trained horse has won since 1951.

As French-breds have won six of the last 11 runnings, that could be a good place to start allied to weight stats that tell us that 14 of the last 16 winners have carried no more than 11st including last season’s 1-2-3 for both of the last two years. It may be worth solely concentrating on that combination to see what is left regardless of how big a price they are. If you prefer official ratings stats to weight carried, all but two of the last 23 winners were rated no higher than 141.

You may want to give the Irish a swerve given that just one Irish-trained horse has won since 1951. However, age hasn’t been a serious factor as Mister McGoldrick won as an 11-year-old three years ago as did Terao and Elfast not all that long ago and there were also victories for two ten-year-olds in fairly recent times. That said 11 of the last 12 winners had ran no more than 16 times over fences. Despite the big priced winners, 17 of the last 19 winners finished in the first four last time out and also look out for Nicky Henderson who has trained four winners and Venetia Williams who enters this season’s race with a very impressive haul of two wins and five places.

GROUND CONDITIONS
 
Racing took place on the New Course.
 
Official going (chase and hurdle courses): Good, good to soft in places.
 
GoingStick readings (Thursday morning): chase and hurdles courses 7.9.
 
Weather: Dry overnight. Morning temperatures were slightly higher than on day two, though the local mist persisted.
 
BETTING MOVES
 
Beautiful Sound, offered at 8-1 in morning lists, was well supported at shorter prices as off-time approached.
Aigle d’Or and Quartz de Thaix – second- and third-favourites ante-post – were weaker in the market.
There was money at each-way odds for I’m a Legend, Just Smudge and Peplum.
 
RACE LINE-UP
 
No contest at the Cheltenham Festival has proved tougher to predict in the past few seasons than this big-field handicap chase. The shortest priced previous winner this century was sent off at 12-1 and in the past three years successes had been registered at 33-1 and 66-1. Despite those eye-watering statistics, most bookmakers were offering no better than 4-1 about Aigle d’Or’s prospects of becoming the first winning favourite that the majority of punters could remember. If the layers were to be believed, then the Gordon Elliott-trained Beautiful Sound was another leading contender, but the race stats were very much against him too, because no Irish raider had landed this prize since way back in 1982. Trends followers might reasonably have turned, therefore, to Venetia Williams’s Quartz de Thaix, second on the morning lists, since his handler had lifted the trophy twice in the past four years. Other trainers with decent records in this event to saddled hopefuls were David Pipe, three-handed thanks to Consigliere, Piraya and Matuhi; Sue Smith, courtesy of just Gansey; and Gary Moore, represented by Peplum.
 
HOW IT PANNED OUT
 
HOLMWOOD LEGEND gave 70-year-old trainer Pat Rodford a dream Festival winner in his final season before retirement.
Superbly ridden by Kieran Burke, who will take over the licence in the summer, he scored decisively from long-time leader Aimigayle.
Well-backed Irish raider Beautiful Sound took third, with Consigliere fourth, Call Me A Legend fifth and Matuhi sixth.
Just Smudge was the first to make the pace, but Aimigayle soon took over and increased the tempo.
She had the field well strung out before halfway, with several struggling under pressure, and was still in front four out.
Gansey shot tp the front at that stage, with Aimigayle trying to keep him company and Holmwood Legend creeping into contention.
The eventual winner grabbed the lead with two to jump and, after Gansey began to tire, only Aimigayle threatened to spoil his party.
She could never quite get back alongside, however, and Holmwood Legend galloped on resolutely to score by three and a half lengths.
 
RACE POINTERS
 
Holmwood Legend had run – and won – just five days earlier and collected here under a 5lb penalty.
That officially put him 2lb well-in, but he will face another hike in his handicap mark after this and may struggle to notch a follow-up.
Aimigayle, having only her second outing of the season, will also be hit by the officially assessor, so she too will find life harder from now on.
If there is one to take from the race, it may well be Beautiful Sound, who made considerable late progress after well behind at halfway.
He stays markedly farther than this – having collected over as much as 3m 1f – and would surely have preferred softer ground.